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july INSIGHTS

Card spend led the month as visitation turned positive around the Matariki long weekend

Card spending was the standout result, growing well ahead of visitor activity, while the busiest days of the month fell across the Matariki long weekend. Total visitor days grew ▲+3% YoY and total visitor nights increased ▲+4% YoY, while total card spending jumped ▲+12% YoY, pointing to higher average card spend per visitor day. Matariki fell in July this year but not last year, and school holidays overlapped the month by three additional days, which may have contributed to the improvement. However, year-on-year TVF comparisons for Coastal Bay of Plenty should be read with some care, as the updated TVF data feed applies from 1 April 2026 and may combine genuine visitation changes with methodology effects. Commercial accommodation demand grew more through longer stays than additional guests: total guest nights rose ▲+2% YoY despite guest arrivals declining ▼-4% YoY. Filled jobs in tourism-related industries eased marginally (▼-1% YoY).

Domestic and international visitation diverged, with international card spend rising as international visitor days fell

Domestic and international visitors moved in opposite directions on visitation, and the domestic gain was only partly reflected in commercial accommodation. Domestic visitor days grew ▲+8% YoY and domestic visitor nights increased ▲+13% YoY, but domestic guest nights rose only ▲+3% YoY. These year-on-year TVF visitation comparisons should be read with some care, as the updated data feed applies from 1 April 2026 and may combine genuine visitation changes with methodology effects. The gap between domestic visitor nights and domestic guest nights suggests some of the additional domestic overnight demand may have been absorbed by short-term rentals or other private stay options, such as staying with friends and family. Domestic card spending also grew firmly (▲+10% YoY). International visitor days and visitor nights both declined ▼-11% YoY, while international guest nights fell more moderately (▼-4% YoY). This suggests commercial accommodation was relatively more resilient than other stay options. International card spending nevertheless increased ▲+18% YoY, consistent with higher average card spend per international visitor day.

Modest growth came entirely from domestic visitors as international visitor days weakened

The region's modest July growth was entirely domestic, with international visitation the weakest part of the month. Domestic visitor days grew ▲+8% YoY while international visitor days fell ▼-11% YoY. However, year-on-year TVF visitation comparisons should be read with some care due to recent methodology changes. The Matariki long weekend was the busiest stretch of the month for domestic visitors, with Saturday 11 July the single busiest day. Total visitor days grew ▲+3% YoY, sitting well above the rolling 12-month trend (▼-5% YoY). This marks a departure from a year of softening, rather than confirmation that the trend has ended.

Auckland, Wellington and Canterbury source markets grew while neighbouring Waikato pulled back

Domestic growth came from further afield while the region's neighbouring markets pulled back. Waikato remained the largest source of domestic visitor days at a 31% share but fell ▼-9% YoY, while the wider Bay of Plenty market declined ▼-17% YoY. Waikato's quarter-ending result was also negative (▼-14% YoY), suggesting the weakness extended beyond July rather than being confined to the month. Visitor days from Auckland grew ▲+19% YoY, Wellington ▲+58% YoY and Canterbury ▲+106% YoY, with Canterbury's smaller 6% share of domestic visitor days amplifying the percentage movement. However, year-on-year TVF visitation comparisons should be read with some care due to recent methodology changes.

International decline sat in the western district while the main city led on domestic

The region's international decline sat almost entirely in Western Bay of Plenty District, while Tauranga City held its international visitors and led on domestic growth. International visitor days in Western Bay of Plenty District fell ▼-26% YoY, compared with essentially no change in Tauranga City (▼-1% YoY). This left total visitor days down ▼-3% YoY in Western Bay of Plenty District but up ▲+7% YoY in Tauranga City. Domestic visitor days grew at a similar rate across both districts (Tauranga City ▲+9% YoY, Western Bay of Plenty District ▲+6% YoY), so the gap between the two districts was mainly international. However, year-on-year TVF visitation comparisons should be read with some care due to recent methodology changes.

Retail Trade carried the month's card spend growth while Accommodation was the only category to fall

Retail Trade was the main source of the month's card spending growth, rising ▲+14% YoY and accounting for 77% of total card spend. Arts & Recreation Services also increased ▲+18% YoY, while Food & Beverage Services grew ▲+5% YoY. Accommodation was the only category to decline, with card spend down ▼-10% YoY. International Accommodation card spend fell more sharply (▼-32% YoY) than international guest nights (▼-4% YoY). The sharper fall in Accommodation card spend than in guest nights suggests that factors beyond fewer commercial stays were at play, such as lower spend per guest night, a change in accommodation mix, or differences in how payments were made or captured.

Domestic card spending grew across the region's major source markets

Domestic card spending grew ▲+10% YoY in July, following a softer previous month. Waikato remained the largest source market at a 33% share, with spending by Waikato visitors up ▲+4% YoY. Spending by visitors from Auckland increased ▲+10% YoY, while Wellington (▲+30% YoY) and Canterbury (▲+42% YoY) recorded faster growth. The rolling 12-month trend for domestic card spending remains negative (▼-5% YoY), so July represents a marked improvement on the annual pattern rather than evidence that the broader trend has turned.

International card spend grew strongly for a second month, led by visitors from the United States

International card spend grew strongly for a second consecutive month, with visitors from the United States the clear driver. International card spend jumped ▲+18% YoY, following ▲+18% YoY in the prior month, with the United States the largest origin at a 33% share and up ▲+31% YoY. Growth extended well beyond that: card spend from the United Kingdom rose ▲+18% YoY and from Africa and the Middle East surged ▲+80% YoY, albeit from a small 9% share that amplifies the percentage, while Australia was the notable exception (▼-11% YoY). With international visitor days down ▼-11% YoY over the same month, the spending gain appears to reflect higher average daily card spend per visitor rather than a larger international presence.

The surrounding district grew card spend faster than the city across most categories

Western Bay of Plenty District grew card spend faster than Tauranga City across the three categories that carry most of its spending. Retail Trade card spend grew ▲+17% YoY in Western Bay of Plenty district against ▲+14% YoY in Tauranga city, and Food & Beverage Services ▲+9% YoY against ▲+5% YoY. The clearest gap was in Arts & Recreation Services, up ▲+42% YoY in Western Bay of Plenty district from a 3% share of its card spend against ▲+12% YoY in Tauranga city, while Accommodation card spend fell in both (Western Bay of Plenty district ▼-19% YoY, Tauranga city ▼-9% YoY).

Auckland card spend concentrated in the district while Wellington and Canterbury lifted the city

Card spend from Auckland concentrated in the surrounding Western Bay of Plenty District, while Tauranga city drew its fastest growth from markets further south. Auckland card spend grew ▲+34% YoY in Western Bay of Plenty District, where it holds a 24% share, against ▲+7% YoY in Tauranga City. Waikato was the largest origin in both districts (38% share in Western Bay of Plenty District, 26% in Tauranga City) but grew at a similar, modest rate in each (▲+3% YoY and ▲+4% YoY), while card spend from Wellington (▲+33% YoY) and Canterbury (▲+45% YoY) lifted Tauranga city and was close to flat in Western Bay of Plenty district (Wellington ▲+1% YoY).

Tightening supply rather than demand lifted occupancy as guests stayed longer

Tightening supply, rather than stronger demand, lifted occupancy this month. Total guest nights slightly increased (▲+2% YoY) as longer stays (average nights per guest ▲+6% YoY) offset fewer guest arrivals (▼-4% YoY), while available capacity contracted ▼-7% YoY and occupancy reached 39% (▲+4%pt. YoY). Domestic guest nights grew ▲+3% YoY against a dip in international guest nights (▼-4% YoY), and with the rolling 12 month trend in total guest nights still negative (▼-4% YoY), July steadied the sector rather than turned it.

Domestic guest nights shifted toward the district while the city held international

Commercial accommodation demand differed sharply between Western Bay of Plenty District and Tauranga City. Western Bay of Plenty District grew total guest nights ▲+8% YoY, driven by domestic guest nights rising ▲+12% YoY. International guest nights, however, fell ▼-44% YoY from a small base. Tauranga City showed the opposite pattern: total guest nights were flat (↔ 0% YoY), with domestic guest nights down ▼-1% YoY and international guest nights up ▲+2% YoY.

Tourism-related employment eased marginally as Activity Services expanded and Travel and Tour Services contracted

Tourism-related employment eased marginally while earnings edged up, with the movement concentrated in a small number of industries. Filled jobs in tourism-related industries dipped ▼-1% YoY while tourism earnings rose ▲+1% YoY. Activity Services expanded fastest (filled jobs ▲+12% YoY, earnings ▲+25% YoY) from a 3% share of filled jobs, and Accommodation added jobs (▲+3% YoY), while Travel and Tour Services contracted (▼-11% YoY) and Food and Beverage Services, which accounts for over half of all filled jobs in tourism-related industries, dipped slightly (▼-1% YoY). The rolling 12 month trend in filled jobs is flat (↔ 0% YoY), so the month sits marginally below an otherwise stable year.

The month's employment softness sat in the surrounding district rather than the city

The month's softness in tourism-related employment sat in the surrounding district rather than the city. Filled jobs in tourism-related industries fell ▼-4% YoY in Western Bay of Plenty District with earnings easing marginally (▼-1% YoY), while Tauranga City held filled jobs flat (↔ 0% YoY) and grew earnings ▲+2% YoY.

Rest of Asia moved into second place as Australia and Rest of World declined

The international market mix reshuffled within a shrinking total. Australia remained the largest market at a 30% share but declined ▼-23% YoY, and its quarter-ending result was also negative (▼-18% YoY), suggesting weakness that extended beyond July rather than a shift in timing. Rest of Asia moved up one place into second, with visitor days up ▲+41% YoY, though the softer quarter-ending result (▲+8% YoY) points to a July-specific gain rather than a sustained lift. Rest of World fell ▼-43% YoY and slipped two places in the rankings, with its quarter-ending result (▼-48% YoY) confirming the decline rather than qualifying it. However, year-on-year TVF visitation comparisons should be read with some care due to recent methodology changes.